Jalen Hurts Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+137/-186).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -186.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 47.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game near the goal line this week (32.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.0% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
Jalen Hurts has run for 0.31 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among QBs (97th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have faced a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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