Jalen Hurts Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Passing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 249.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 256.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 249.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This game's spread implies a throwing game script for the Eagles, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
The Philadelphia offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Jalen Hurts is positioned as one of the most on-target QBs in the league this year with a fantastic 67.5% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.60 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 4th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 203.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Cowboys defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year (63.9% Adjusted Completion%).
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

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