Jalen Hurts Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 3:04 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (28.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.7% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Detroit Lions defensive ends grade out as the worst DE corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have faced a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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