Jalen Guyton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jalen Guyton

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Guyton

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Guyton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.3% pass rate.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Jalen Guyton has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (82.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (13.8%).
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New England's group of CBs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
With a feeble 35.2% Adjusted Completion Rate (10th percentile) this year, Jalen Guyton ranks as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among wideouts.

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