Jalen Guyton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jalen Guyton

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Guyton

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 18, 2023 8:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Guyton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.8 offensive plays in this contest: the most among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects Jalen Guyton to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game in this contest (13.8% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (6.7% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.1%) to wide receivers this year (69.1%).
When it comes to defensive tackles pass-rushing, Green Bay's DT corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.

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