Jaleel McLaughlin Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jaleel McLaughlin

RB · Cleveland Browns

Touchdowns

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Jaleel McLaughlin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2232/-3477).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 60.9% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the league in these cases has been the Browns.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in football.
The predictive model expects Jaleel McLaughlin to be a less important option in his team's run game near the goal line in this contest (0.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.9% in games he has played).
Since the start of last season, the daunting Steelers run defense has yielded a meager 0.55 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Browns as the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Jaleel McLaughlin has been been lightly used his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 1st percentile when it comes to RBs.
Jaleel McLaughlin has accrued a feeble -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 17th percentile among RBs.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Browns ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season.
The receiving touchdown line reads "0" on the back of Jaleel McLaughlin's trading card since the start of last season.