Jaleel McLaughlin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jaleel McLaughlin

NFL · Player Props

Jaleel McLaughlin

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaleel McLaughlin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
With a sizeable 8.3% Target% (75th percentile) this year, Jaleel McLaughlin has been as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the NFL.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Broncos grades out as the 9th-best in football this year.
With an excellent 89.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (91st percentile) this year, Jaleel McLaughlin ranks among the best possession receivers in football among RBs.

Favors Under

The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to pass on 53.2% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 126.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Denver Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: fewest in football.

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