Jaleel McLaughlin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jaleel McLaughlin

NFL · Player Props

Jaleel McLaughlin

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaleel McLaughlin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+138/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -177 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaleel McLaughlin is positioned as one of the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, hauling in an exceptional 87.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 78th percentile.
This year, the anemic Vikings pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 90.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive strategy to skew 2.0% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Broncos this year (a lowly 53.7 per game on average).
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's group of safeties has been very good this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in football.

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