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Jakobi Meyers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-170).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Jakobi Meyers has run a route on 91.8% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 90th percentile among WRs.THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to earn 6.8 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.Jakobi Meyers has been among the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.9 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The New England Patriots have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 60.3 plays per game.The New England Patriots offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
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