Jakobi Meyers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Jakobi Meyers

NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-136/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to earn 8.9 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Jakobi Meyers has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 23.7% this year, which ranks him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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