Jakobi Meyers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jakobi Meyers

NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-175/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -149 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to accumulate 7.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
Jakobi Meyers's 60.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 89th percentile for wideouts.
Jakobi Meyers has been among the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging a stellar 5.8 receptions per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The New York Jets pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (60.8%) versus wideouts this year (60.8%).

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