Jakobi Meyers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jakobi Meyers

NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-138/+103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -173 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
Jakobi Meyers has run a route on 91.7% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to accrue 6.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
Jakobi Meyers has been among the best wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 5.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 60.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) versus WRs since the start of last season (64.6%).
The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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