Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jakobi Meyers

NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+191/-278).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -216 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -278.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.53 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to be much more involved in his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (23.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
Jakobi Meyers has compiled a colossal 72.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
Jakobi Meyers's 61.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 89th percentile for wide receivers.
Jakobi Meyers's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 69.1% to 79.8%.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 3rd-least passing TDs in the NFL to wideouts: 0.50 per game this year.
The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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