Jake Ferguson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

My Account Log Out

reorder

Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 26, 2026 7:32 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+326/-335).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 5th-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (60.1% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Dallas Cowboys.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 136.1 plays on offense called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.2 per game) this year.
Jake Ferguson grades out in the 92nd percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an excellent 0.50 per game.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 4-point favorite in this week's contest.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.9% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Jake Ferguson has notched quite a few less air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (29.0 per game).
Jake Ferguson's 20.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 32.5.
Jake Ferguson's 70.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a remarkable drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year's 81.2% figure.

More Jake Ferguson Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow