Jake Ferguson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 8, 2026 9:12 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+233/-239).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league in the red zone (59.2% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
With an exceptional 17.4% Red Zone Target% (84th percentile) this year, Jake Ferguson places among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the league.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Cowboys grades out as the 8th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 9-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per play.
After totaling 29.0 air yards per game last season, Jake Ferguson has produced significantly fewer this season, now sitting at 18.0 per game.
Jake Ferguson's 20.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 32.5.

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