Jake Ferguson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+326/-335).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.9 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game.

Favors Under

Jake Ferguson's 21.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 32.5.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in football versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season (65.2% Adjusted Completion%).

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