Jake Ferguson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-308).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (59.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Cowboys.
The 4th-most plays in football have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.4 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are projected by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season.
The Ravens defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest receiving TDs in the league to tight ends: 0.26 per game since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the anemic Ravens run defense has been gouged for a massive 1.05 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the 9th-largest rate in the NFL.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Baltimore's DE corps has been terrible since the start of last season, profiling as the 6th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.