Jake Ferguson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-360).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (58.7% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Dallas Cowboys.
Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.12 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
With an extraordinary 22.9% Red Zone Target Share (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Jake Ferguson rates among the tight ends with the highest volume near the end zone in football.
Jake Ferguson has put up a colossal 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Favors Under

With a 4-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Dallas Cowboys grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Washington's group of LBs has been atrocious since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

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