Jake Ferguson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+311/-381).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -381.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.5% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Dallas Cowboys last year (a colossal 60.6 per game on average).
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
With an exceptional 23.1% Red Zone Target% (92nd percentile) last year, Jake Ferguson rates among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 3-point favorite in this game.
When talking about pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 2nd-worst in football last year.
The Giants defense has yielded the 5th-fewest receiving TDs in football to tight ends: 0.29 per game last year.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-most TDs in the NFL (1.24 per game) against the Giants defense last year.