Jake Ferguson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-191).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -191 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 130.9 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This year, the shaky Cardinals pass defense has yielded a colossal 79.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 9th-biggest rate in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cardinals defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
Jake Ferguson has been a less important option in his team's pass attack this year (9.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (17.1%).
Jake Ferguson's 2.4 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a meaningful drop-off in his receiving talent over last season's 4.5 figure.
Jake Ferguson's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 81.2% to 67.7%.

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