Jake Ferguson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 26, 2026 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+102/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 136.1 plays on offense called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.2 per game) this year.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's safety corps has been lousy this year, projecting as the worst in football.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 4-point favorite in this week's contest.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.9% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Jake Ferguson's 10.3% Target Share this year indicates a noteworthy regression in his passing game workload over last year's 17.1% mark.
Jake Ferguson's 2.8 adjusted catches per game this season reflects a substantial decline in his receiving skills over last season's 4.5 mark.
Jake Ferguson's 70.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a remarkable drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year's 81.2% figure.

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