Jake Ferguson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 7.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cowboys to pass on 62.1% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
As far as a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.89 seconds per play, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 10th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in the league.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Jake Ferguson's 73.7% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys an impressive decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 84.5% mark.
As it relates to defensive ends pass-rushing, Philadelphia's group of DEs has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.

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