Jake Ferguson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme to tilt 5.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
The leading projections forecast Jake Ferguson to accumulate 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Jake Ferguson's 32.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 7.9.
Jake Ferguson's 4.1 adjusted catches per game this year reflects a noteworthy progression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 1.7 rate.

Favors Under

With a 17.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 53.9% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.38 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.
Jake Ferguson's 78.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a remarkable regression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 84.5% figure.