Jake Ferguson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 11:25 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+160/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +175 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 57.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a measly 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.