Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-111/-107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -124 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 130.9 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Jake Ferguson's 2.76 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows a noteable improvement in his effectiveness in the open field over last season's 0.0% rate.
This year, the shaky Cardinals pass defense has yielded a colossal 79.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 9th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cardinals defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
Jake Ferguson has been a less important option in his team's pass attack this year (9.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (17.1%).
After totaling 29.0 air yards per game last season, Jake Ferguson has seen a big downtick this season, now averaging 19.0 per game.
Jake Ferguson's 17.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season indicates a noteable decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 34.0 rate.

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