Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 26, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 136.1 plays on offense called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.2 per game) this year.
Jake Ferguson's ability to pick up extra yardage has gotten better this year, accumulating 2.76 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 0.00 rate last year.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's safety corps has been lousy this year, projecting as the worst in football.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 4-point favorite in this week's contest.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.9% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Jake Ferguson's 10.3% Target Share this year indicates a noteworthy regression in his passing game workload over last year's 17.1% mark.
Jake Ferguson has notched quite a few less air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (29.0 per game).
Jake Ferguson has notched significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this season than he did last season (34.0).

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