Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 17, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+108/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 4th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect the Cowboys to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
In this week's game, Jake Ferguson is projected by the projection model to slot into the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.0 targets.
Jake Ferguson's ability to generate extra yardage has improved this year, accumulating 3.07 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 0.00 figure last year.

Favors Under

Jake Ferguson has been a less important option in his team's passing offense this season (11.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (17.1%).
Jake Ferguson has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (29.0 per game).
Jake Ferguson's 22.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year shows an impressive regression in his receiving talent over last year's 34.0 rate.
Jake Ferguson's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 81.2% to 71.1%.
Jake Ferguson's pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, totaling a mere 5.13 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 6.15 rate last season.