Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The 4th-most plays in football have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.4 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
The leading projections forecast Jake Ferguson to accrue 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are projected by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the imposing Ravens defense has yielded a measly 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the tough Ravens defense has conceded the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a mere 7.2 yards.