Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-239/+181).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ +625 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +181.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 61.5% pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.12 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
With a high 73.6% Route Participation% (84th percentile) since the start of last season, Jake Ferguson has been as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast Jake Ferguson to total 5.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Favors Under

With a 4-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Dallas Cowboys grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season.
Jake Ferguson profiles as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a mere 6.12 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 7th percentile.
Jake Ferguson grades out as one of the bottom TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 2nd percentile.