Jake Browning TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jake Browning

NFL · Player Props

Jake Browning

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Jake Browning TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-227).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -227.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 9th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (61.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Bengals.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are forecasted by the predictive model to call 67.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
The projections expect Jake Browning to attempt 37.9 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bengals this year (a measly 55.9 per game on average).
The Cincinnati O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
This year, the tough Vikings defense has conceded a feeble 1.15 TDs through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-lowest rate in football.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's unit has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.

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