Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-355/+330).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 61.7% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL in this respect has been the Detroit Lions.
The predictive model expects this game to have the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 62.5 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
After accumulating 2.0 air yards per game last season, Jahmyr Gibbs has produced significantly more this season, currently averaging 15.0 per game.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a 5.5-point favorite this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cardinals, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.0 per game) this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs has earned 91.3% of his offense's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.
With a remarkable ratio of 1.25 rushing TDs per game (98th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs places as one of the leading rushing TD-scorers in football this year.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a paltry 77.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 8th-lowest rate in football.

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