Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends profile as the 6th-worst group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season.

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