Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 17, 2024 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year.
In this contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is anticipated by the model to place in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.1 targets.
With an outstanding 24.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (89th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks as one of the best pass-game RBs in the league.
Jahmyr Gibbs's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 73.7% to 80.9%.

Favors Under

With a 14-point advantage, the Lions are a heavy favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.72 seconds per play.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (48.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (58.9%).

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