Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 31, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The leading projections forecast Jahmyr Gibbs to earn 5.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been a big part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 16.0% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs.
When it comes to air yards, Jahmyr Gibbs grades out in the towering 94th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a whopping 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

Favors Under

The Lions are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see just 124.5 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Las Vegas Raiders, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.4 per game) this year.
With a subpar 4.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (21st percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs stands among the top pass-game running backs in football in space.