Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects Jahmyr Gibbs to accumulate 5.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Jahmyr Gibbs has totaled a massive 2.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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