Jahmyr Gibbs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 30, 2024 11:56 PM EST

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 6 points.
At the moment, the 9th-most run-focused team in the NFL (41.4% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Detroit Lions.
The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Lions since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).
Out of all running backs, Jahmyr Gibbs grades out in the 76th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 40.4% of the workload in his team's ground game.

Favors Under

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Seattle's collection of DEs has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the 4th-best in football.

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