Jahan Dotson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jahan Dotson

NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+112/-154).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
With an impressive 87.1% Route Participation% (79th percentile) this year, Jahan Dotson rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.
In this week's contest, Jahan Dotson is projected by the projections to position himself in the 77th percentile among wide receivers with 7.1 targets.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.

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