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Jahan Dotson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+150/-180).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Commanders offensive approach to lean 12.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.The predictive model expects the Commanders as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.When talking about pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Washington Commanders ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The projections expect the Commanders to run the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Jahan Dotson has been incorporated much less in his team's passing game.Jahan Dotson's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 64.4% to 61.0%.When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Atlanta's safety corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.
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