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Jahan Dotson

Jahan Dotson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears

Jahan Dotson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Jahan Dotson has run a route on 89.1% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs.

Since the start of last season, the weak Chicago Bears pass defense has given up a colossal 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.

Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.

Jahan Dotson's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 64.4% to 59.1%.

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