Jahan Dotson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jahan Dotson

NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 61.0% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.3 total plays called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).
The New York cornerbacks profile as the worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a huge 7.5-point favorite this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the New York Giants, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.7 per game) this year.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Jahan Dotson has been incorporated much less in his offense's passing game.
Jahan Dotson's 60.1% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a significant regression in his receiving talent over last season's 64.4% figure.

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