Jahan Dotson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jahan Dotson

NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
Jahan Dotson has run a route on 86.0% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Jahan Dotson to notch 6.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks profile as the 6th-worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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