Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 6:41 PM EST

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 13.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 66.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

After accumulating 78.0 air yards per game last season, Jahan Dotson has gotten worse this season, currently boasting 49.0 per game.
Jahan Dotson's 36.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 44.0.
Jahan Dotson has totaled significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).
Jahan Dotson's 59.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a remarkable drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last year's 64.4% rate.
Jahan Dotson's 5.6 adjusted yards per target this year indicates a meaningful drop-off in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 9.4 mark.