Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jahan Dotson

NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Jahan Dotson has run a route on 89.1% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs.
Since the start of last season, the shaky Bears defense has been gouged for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a massive 9.95 yards.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.
Jahan Dotson has compiled far fewer air yards this season (53.0 per game) than he did last season (78.0 per game).
Jahan Dotson has notched many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (31.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).

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