Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-105/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Jahan Dotson has run a route on 87.4% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 76th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Jahan Dotson's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, totaling just 5.67 yards-per-target vs a 9.42 mark last season.
Jahan Dotson has been among the bottom wideouts in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 1st percentile.