Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 61.0% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.3 total plays called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).
The New York Giants defense has been gouged for the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (186.0) to WRs this year.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a huge 7.5-point favorite this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the New York Giants, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.7 per game) this year.
Jahan Dotson has accrued far fewer air yards this year (56.0 per game) than he did last year (78.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Jahan Dotson has been incorporated much less in his offense's passing game.
Jahan Dotson's 60.1% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a significant regression in his receiving talent over last season's 64.4% figure.