Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
Jahan Dotson has run a route on 86.0% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Jahan Dotson to notch 6.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
Jahan Dotson has posted a colossal 78.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Jahan Dotson has been among the worst wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 1st percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 7.28 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in football.