Jack Stoll Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Jack Stoll

NFL · Player Props

Jack Stoll

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 11:26 PM EST

Analysis

Jack Stoll Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+136/-189).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -174 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -189.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 138.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Jack Stoll has run fewer routes this season (34.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (11.8%).
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Jack Stoll has been among the worst pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a measly 1.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 19th percentile among TEs.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (69.4%) to TEs this year (69.4%).
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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