Jack Stoll Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Jack Stoll

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jack Stoll Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+128/-172).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -172.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
Jack Stoll has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (36.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (11.8%).
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line has given their QB 2.90 seconds before the pass (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
Jack Stoll has been among the worst pass-catching TEs this year, averaging just 1.2 receptions per game while checking in at the 23rd percentile among tight ends.