Jack Stoll Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jack Stoll

NFL · Player Props

Jack Stoll

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jack Stoll Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jack Stoll to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game this week (9.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.9% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Completion% in football (79%) to tight ends this year (79.0%).

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
Jack Stoll has been among the bottom tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a measly 0.8 receptions per game while grading out in the 9th percentile among TEs.
Jack Stoll has been among the worst possession receivers in the league among tight ends, completing just 54.7% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 17th percentile.

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