Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 8, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 60.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to run 65.2 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the best in the league last year at blocking for the run game.
Isiah Pacheco has run for substantially more adjusted yards per game (68.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Isiah Pacheco's running effectiveness (4.66 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (83rd percentile among RBs).
The Buffalo Bills defense has produced the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 4.79 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 36.6% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Isiah Pacheco to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game in this week's contest (18.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (64.0% in games he has played).
The Bills linebackers rank as the 4th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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